Unfortunately, most leaders don’t know how to do this.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Yes, Paul Ryan Spoke the Truth About Obama's Fiscal Record at the Republican Convention - Forbes
Yes, Paul Ryan Spoke the Truth About Obama's Fiscal Record at the Republican Convention - Forbes ;..This practice reminds me that good strategy depends on sacrifice. And good leaders must know how to sacrifice good ideas for great ones all the time.
Why the Most Successful Leaders Find a Yin for Their Yang - Forbes
Why the Most Successful Leaders Find a Yin for Their Yang - Forbes ;.. This practice reminds me that good strategy depends on sacrifice. And good leaders must know how to sacrifice good ideas for great ones all the time.
Unfortunately, most leaders don’t know how to do this.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Three (Incredibly Simple) Questions The Most Successful People Use To Change The World - Forbes
Three (Incredibly Simple) Questions The Most Successful People Use To Change The World - Forbes '.. “Why didn’t I think of that?” So here I humbly share with you a winning formula that I see leaders use again and again and again…to change the world.
Use this formula the next time you feel stuck—whether you are trying to change your industry, your company or your personal life—and I promise you it will work.
Question Number 1: What’s the outcome I want?
Most people seem to get stuck in the moment, caught up in the drama of a situation they don’t like. They unwittingly wind up playing the helpless victim, and as I’ve written in the past, victims can’t innovate because they are focused on the problem—not solutions. You will hear them talk about how things aren’t fair, who has wronged them, and they look for encouragement or excuses to feel better about the status quo. While this may make them feel good, being energized by problems is a recipe for inaction.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
The death of habeas corpus
The death of habeas corpus ;..
The following is a transcript of Keith Olbermann's special report on habeas corpus, as reported on Tuesday, October 10th:
The president has now succeeded where no one has before. He’s managed to kill the writ of habeas corpus. Tonight, a special investigation, how that, in turn, kills nothing less than your Bill of Rights. Because the Mark Foley story began to break on the night of September 28, exploding the following day, many people may not have noticed the bill passed by the Senate that night.
Congress passed the Military Commission’s Act to give Mr. Bush the power to deal effectively with America’s enemies—those who seek to harm the country. He has been very clear on who he thinks that is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: For people to leak that program and for a newspaper to publish it does great harm to the United States of America.
That fact that we’re discussing this program is helping the enemy.
The following is a transcript of Keith Olbermann's special report on habeas corpus, as reported on Tuesday, October 10th:
The president has now succeeded where no one has before. He’s managed to kill the writ of habeas corpus. Tonight, a special investigation, how that, in turn, kills nothing less than your Bill of Rights. Because the Mark Foley story began to break on the night of September 28, exploding the following day, many people may not have noticed the bill passed by the Senate that night.
Congress passed the Military Commission’s Act to give Mr. Bush the power to deal effectively with America’s enemies—those who seek to harm the country. He has been very clear on who he thinks that is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: For people to leak that program and for a newspaper to publish it does great harm to the United States of America.
That fact that we’re discussing this program is helping the enemy.
Ryan, and the mythic 'senior vote' - JSOnline
Ryan, and the mythic 'senior vote' - JSOnline ;.. In fact, the long lives seniors have experienced make them more diverse than young people.
Some seniors are veterans of foreign wars; others are ex-hippies who protested those wars. Some have been married and divorced numerous times; some are still with their high school sweethearts. Some grew up wealthy. Some made several fortunes and lost them all. And others have never felt what it's like to have more than a few bucks in their pockets.
Similarly, senior citizens are all over the map politically. I have plenty of old relatives who, if left alone to talk politics, would likely cane each other within 10 minutes.
Yet it still apparently shocks Democrats that seniors around the nation haven't risen up in unison to reject Ryan and his budget plan. According to a recent Washington Post/ABC poll, 50% of seniors nationally view Ryan favorably and only 35% view him unfavorably.
Evernote Already Organizes Your Personal Life, Now It's Coming to Work | Wired Business | Wired.com
Evernote Already Organizes Your Personal Life, Now It's Coming to Work | Wired Business | Wired.com ;.. Evernote, the digital note-taking service that keeps all the bits of your life in order – the receipts, web clippings, recipes, and the title of that book you want to read – wants to organize your work life too.
Friday at the Evernote Trunk Conference, an annual developer event, the company announced Evernote for Business. Without getting the full demo, it seems to take Evernote’s paid service, called Premium, a few steps further by adding features designed specifically for business, including company-wide Evernote directories, shared notebooks, and enhanced security.
In Evernote for Business you can still keep selected notes, notebooks, and stacks private or limited to a handful of people, but now you can also share content to an Evernote directory that everyone in your company can access. Evernote for Business users can also designate an administrator to manage the entire company account. Current Evernote users will be able to get the business version as an upgrade to their personal account.
Of all the new features Evernote’s engineers designed for the corporate world, security is one that they’re really hammering away on. First, Evernote makes it clear that all the content you create and store in a Evernote business account belongs to your company, not Evernote. Everything created in Evernote is private by default, until you choose to share it with others. Finally, all communication between Evernote apps and the Evernote servers that store your data is protected by SSL encryption.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
General Motors Is Headed For Bankruptcy -- Again - Forbes
General Motors Is Headed For Bankruptcy -- Again - Forbes ;.. Right now, the federal government owns 500,000,000 shares of GM, or about 26% of the company. It would need to get about $53.00/share for these to break even on the bailout, but the stock closed at only $20.21/share on Tuesday. This left the government holding $10.1 billion worth of stock, and sitting on an unrealized loss of $16.4 billion.
Right now, the government’s GM stock is worth about 39% less than it was on November 17, 2010, when the company went public at $33.00/share. However, during the intervening time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by almost 20%, so GM shares have lost 49% of their value relative to the Dow.
It’s doubtful that the Obama administration would attempt to sell off the government’s massive position in GM while the stock price is falling. It would be too embarrassing politically. Accordingly, if GM shares continue to decline, it is likely that Obama would ride the stock down to zero.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
In Vietnam, Growing Fears of an Economic Meltdown - NYTimes.com
In Vietnam, Growing Fears of an Economic Meltdown - NYTimes.com ;.. In Vietnam’s major cities, a once-booming property market has come crashing down. Hundreds of abandoned construction sites are the most obvious signs of a sickly economy.
Sunday, August 19, 2012
USA TODAY - News, Travel, Weather, Entertainment, Sports, Technology, U.S. & World
USA TODAY - News, Travel, Weather, Entertainment, Sports, Technology, U.S. & World ;.. Obama aides quickly point out that Ryan included the $716 billion in Medicare reductions in his own budget, though Romney has not; the Republican candidate has vowed to repeal Obamacare in its entirety.
Republicans, who many analysts consider to be vulnerable on the Medicare issue, say they welcome the debate over the program's future. Said Ryan: "We want this debate, we need this debate, and we are going to win this debate."
Obama and aides are equally confident about the Medicare issue.
"My plan has extended the life of Medicare by nearly a decade," Obama said. "Their plan would shorten the life of Medicare and end Medicare as we know it, because they'd turn it into a voucher system."
USA TODAY - News, Travel, Weather, Entertainment, Sports, Technology, U.S. & World
USA TODAY - News, Travel, Weather, Entertainment, Sports, Technology, U.S. & World ;.. Consumers are once again doubting the safety of cantaloupes, a year after a deadly outbreak of food poisoning caused by tainted melons killed at least 30 people and sickened 146 people.
Agricultural experts say the frequent problems with cantaloupes come from the nature of the melons and sloppy agricultural practices.
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Education: A Predictor of Longer Life - Yahoo! Finance
Education: A Predictor of Longer Life - Yahoo! Finance ;.. Education is certainly not the only variable associated with longer lives, but it may be the most powerful.
[See Top 10 U.S. Places for Healthcare.]
Recent study findings published in the journal Health Affairs present a remarkable update to the already considerable research showing education to be a powerful predictor of longer life spans.
[See Top 10 U.S. Places for Healthcare.]
Recent study findings published in the journal Health Affairs present a remarkable update to the already considerable research showing education to be a powerful predictor of longer life spans.
Friday, August 17, 2012
picasaweb.google.com/rayloke1: Inferring Default Probabilities from Credit Spread...
picasaweb.google.com/rayloke1: Inferring Default Probabilities from Credit Spread...: Inferring Default Probabilities from Credit Spreads: The Journal of Fixed Income ;... PROBABILITIES on DERIVATIVES, ... That an implied vol...
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Internet Evolution - Executive Clan Editor's Blog - FBI Sentinel: Case Study in Executive Failure
Internet Evolution - Executive Clan Editor's Blog - FBI Sentinel: Case Study in Executive Failure ;.. poor management -- what Moore called a "lack of clear ownership":
Tellingly, a project manager was appointed only late into the project, the FBI cycled through 5 people in the CIO role in 4 years and accountability appears generally absent due to decision making by committees instead of knowledgeable individuals. In addition to a lack of accountability at the contractor level, there was a need for clearer accountability within the FBI. Lack of clear accountability structures is a clear theme in failed projects...
Internet Evolution - Executive Clan Editor's Blog - Rule No. 1: When You're in a Hole, Stop Digging
Internet Evolution - Executive Clan Editor's Blog - Rule No. 1: When You're in a Hole, Stop Digging ;.. Sadly, this scenario is real: It happened at the FBI, as I noted in my blog last week. And it continues to happen in various forms to many large enterprises.
Another case in point: Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; Toronto: RIM), plagued by executive turnover, falling market share, and skepticism from press and analysts, is nevertheless pressing on with a staged rollout of its latest smartphones, despite their 2013 ship date.
Another instance: Yahoo has hired a high-profile (and expensive) CEO, despite internal and external problems that are severe enough to have observers calling "Time!" for the beleaguered portal provider.
All of which prompts questions: How can an enterprise leader decide when to pull the plug on a costly project? And what are the signs that it may be time to consider doing so?
In the case of the FBI, we can see that the warning signs were legion. But so much had been invested in the project by the time it went off the rails, and the ultimate goal was considered to be so vital to national security, that the decision to press on seemed to make sense. Whether it could have been handled differently is open to question.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
John Kennedy: Marketing... From Mad Men to Twitter Memes
John Kennedy: Marketing... From Mad Men to Twitter Memes ; .. As we all know, the hit series Mad Men portrays an ad industry and set of clients that are as dated as businessmen in fedoras, which makes the show so fascinating.
Yet, the twist is that the kind of marketing the show depicts -- one where advertisers crafted brand messages to capture the imagination of a mass market and then broadcast those messages via one-way media channels -- didn't disappear gradually over the past 50 years. It has happened only in the last decade.
Consumers began challenging conventional marketing strategies with the advent of social media, which became a virtual testing ground for whether marketers could keep their promises.
Now, people turn to their Facebook friends, price-scanning apps and video uploads to create their own channels. They voice opinions about brands within their own groups and to the world at large. In essence, social media has become a new channel between brands and their customers -- but one where the customers are broadcasting and the marketers are listening.
Social media has emerged as a kind of "truth serum" for good and bad customer experiences. It enables consumers to keep companies honest and potentially elevate them to celebrity status -- or hurt them if they refuse to listen.
In response, marketers are doing nothing less than remaking their profession. They are using the latest advances in social media and big data analytics technology to better comprehend their markets, and most importantly, remake their own companies and brands.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Romney: Ryan is ‘next president of the United States’ | The Ticket - Yahoo! News
Romney: Ryan is ‘next president of the United States’ | The Ticket - Yahoo! News ;.. So why is this minor but very high-profile flub good news for the Romney-Ryan ticket? Because, four years ago, here is what Barack Obama said: "So let me introduce to you the next president-the next vice president of the US of America, Joe Biden."
Biden, not to be outdone, referred to his future boss as "Barack America."
Zakaria suspended for copying other writer's work - Yahoo! News
Zakaria suspended for copying other writer's work - Yahoo! News ;.. In Zakaria's column, titled "The Case for Gun Control," he began one paragraph with the sentences: "Adam Winkler, a professor of constitutional law at UCLA, documents the actual history in 'Gunfight: The Battle Over the Right to Bear Arms in America.' Guns were regulated in the U.S. from the earliest years of the Republic."
A corresponding passage in Lenore's New Yorker essay, titled "Battleground America," begins: "As Adam Winkler, a constitutional-law scholar at U.C.L.A., demonstrates in a remarkably nuanced new book, 'Gunfight: The Battle Over the Right to Bear Arms in America,' firearms have been regulated in the United States from the start."
In Zakaria's statement, he apologized "unreservedly" to Lepore, as well as to his editors and readers.
Romney adviser slams Obama campaign’s ‘unbelievable exaggerations’ | The Ticket - Yahoo! News
Romney adviser slams Obama campaign’s ‘unbelievable exaggerations’ | The Ticket - Yahoo! News ;.. BOSTON—A senior adviser to Mitt Romney lashed out at President Barack Obama's re-election campaign Friday, accusing the president of waging a campaign based on "ugly distortions and lies."
"They have gone from what started out as petty distortions and untruths to unbelievable exaggerations that diminish the office of the president and insult the American people," Romney senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom told reporters at a media briefing at the campaign's headquarters. "I don't think a world champion limbo dancer could get any lower than the Obama campaign right now."
Obama response to Ryan pick: Harder, Faster, More | The Ticket - Yahoo! News
Obama response to Ryan pick: Harder, Faster, More | The Ticket - Yahoo! News ;.. The early attacks are telling: Obama's website repeatedly refers to Ryan's "extreme budget plan" as favoring the rich over the middle class (the president's core argument against Romney). The first line of its biographical sketch reads "Paul Ryan is a career Washington D.C. insider." (Obama has been running in large part against inside-the-Beltway political stalemate, casting the blame on Republicans.)
In an attack everyone in politics saw coming, the site warns Ryan's budget "would turn Medicare into a voucher program, increasing seniors' costs by up to $6,350 per year"—an unusually precise figure seemingly tailored to shock elderly voters in pivotal battlegrounds like Florida, even though his proposal would not affect people currently over 55.
The site also highlights Ryan's opposition to abortion and his vote against legislation aimed at erasing pay discrimination against women. (Obama is counting on his "gender gap" advantage over Romney in November.) The president tweeted a link to the new content to his 18.4 million followers.
Team Obama hopes that these arguments will be enough to reassemble key parts of the coalition that powered his historic 2008 victory while limiting the political damage from the president's sorest vulnerability: An economy still sputtering and weighed down by high unemployment three and a half years after he took office.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Malaysian PM warns against liberalism, pluralism - Latest news around the world and developments close to home - MSN Malaysia News
Malaysian PM warns against liberalism, pluralism - Latest news around the world and developments close to home - MSN Malaysia News ;''
Speaking to more than 10,000 Islamic leaders just days before the Muslim fasting month begins, Najib also said he supported human rights but "within the boundaries set by Islam", in comments quoted by local media.
"Pluralism, liberalism? All these isms' are against Islam and it is compulsory for us to fight these," Najib said, according to news portal the Malaysian Insider.
Najib must call fresh elections by early next year and his government has come under pressure to reform an electoral system that critics and the political opposition say is biased in the long-ruling party's favour.
An April rally saw tens of thousands pour into the capital Kuala Lumpur to demand electoral changes.
It ended in chaos after police and protestors clashed openly in the streets of the capital. Police used tear gas and water cannons, and more than 500 people were arrested.
The next polls are widely expected to be a close contest after the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition suffered its worst-ever election showing against a resurgent opposition in 2008.
Adopting a reformist mantle to woo back voters lost in 2008, Najib has embarked on a raft of reforms including repeal of the controversial Internal Security Act, which for decades had allowed indefinite detention without trial.
He also last week announced plans to repeal the country's Sedition Act, which has been similarly criticised for being used to curb dissent.
But Najib faces a balancing act in that he also must appeal to conservative hardliners and Muslims, some of whom are opposed to an increasingly vocal gay rights movement.
Muslim ethnic Malays make up 60 percent of the multi-ethnic country's 28 million people, but Malaysia also has sizable ethnic Chinese and Indian non-Muslim minorities whose votes are coveted by the ruling coalition.
Speaking to more than 10,000 Islamic leaders just days before the Muslim fasting month begins, Najib also said he supported human rights but "within the boundaries set by Islam", in comments quoted by local media.
"Pluralism, liberalism? All these isms' are against Islam and it is compulsory for us to fight these," Najib said, according to news portal the Malaysian Insider.
Najib must call fresh elections by early next year and his government has come under pressure to reform an electoral system that critics and the political opposition say is biased in the long-ruling party's favour.
An April rally saw tens of thousands pour into the capital Kuala Lumpur to demand electoral changes.
It ended in chaos after police and protestors clashed openly in the streets of the capital. Police used tear gas and water cannons, and more than 500 people were arrested.
The next polls are widely expected to be a close contest after the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition suffered its worst-ever election showing against a resurgent opposition in 2008.
Adopting a reformist mantle to woo back voters lost in 2008, Najib has embarked on a raft of reforms including repeal of the controversial Internal Security Act, which for decades had allowed indefinite detention without trial.
He also last week announced plans to repeal the country's Sedition Act, which has been similarly criticised for being used to curb dissent.
But Najib faces a balancing act in that he also must appeal to conservative hardliners and Muslims, some of whom are opposed to an increasingly vocal gay rights movement.
Muslim ethnic Malays make up 60 percent of the multi-ethnic country's 28 million people, but Malaysia also has sizable ethnic Chinese and Indian non-Muslim minorities whose votes are coveted by the ruling coalition.
Gay pastor holds wedding banquet in Malaysia - Latest news around the world and developments close to home - MSN Malaysia News
Gay pastor holds wedding banquet in Malaysia - Latest news around the world and developments close to home - MSN Malaysia News ;..
He regularly returns to Malaysia and elsewhere in Asia to promote gay awareness.
Influential Malaysian religious figures and political conservatives remain vehemently opposed to the growing prominence of the country's gay community.
Authorities last year banned an annual gay-themed festival, featuring gay-oriented films, concerts and forums, while a prominent religious body in 2008 issued a fatwa against lesbian sex.
After Ngeo announced his wedding plans last year, Islamic Affairs Minister Jamil Khir Baharom denounced same-sex marriages as "extremism that... will create social problems".
Other officials and some Christian leaders also condemned Ngeo's nuptials.
Ngeo said gays should not let anything "paralyse us or scare us to silence".
"We should not be short-sighted and discouraged by unwanted backlash... We should not succumb to fear!" he said in his email.
He regularly returns to Malaysia and elsewhere in Asia to promote gay awareness.
Influential Malaysian religious figures and political conservatives remain vehemently opposed to the growing prominence of the country's gay community.
Authorities last year banned an annual gay-themed festival, featuring gay-oriented films, concerts and forums, while a prominent religious body in 2008 issued a fatwa against lesbian sex.
After Ngeo announced his wedding plans last year, Islamic Affairs Minister Jamil Khir Baharom denounced same-sex marriages as "extremism that... will create social problems".
Other officials and some Christian leaders also condemned Ngeo's nuptials.
Ngeo said gays should not let anything "paralyse us or scare us to silence".
"We should not be short-sighted and discouraged by unwanted backlash... We should not succumb to fear!" he said in his email.
Monday, August 6, 2012
Netvibes – Social Media Monitoring, Analytics and Alerts Dashboard
Netvibes – Social Media Monitoring, Analytics and Alerts Dashboard: Netvibes is the all-in-one dashboard intelligence platform for real-time social media monitoring, social analytics, brand sentiment, reputation management, team management, company intranets and community portals. The #1 dashboard solution for Fortune 500 brands, agencies and enterprises." ;.. WAY TO VISUALIZE ...
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Arianna Huffington: Dear Class Of 2011: Good Luck... You're Really Going To Need It!
Arianna Huffington: Dear Class Of 2011: Good Luck... You're Really Going To Need It! ;.. A SILVER LINE REALLY ...There is, however, a silver lining to graduating in such tough economic times. Conventional wisdom says that today's graduates are going to be less likely to take chances, less likely to pass up the safe bird in the hand, but, in fact, there is now a higher premium on taking risks and following your dreams, creating your job instead of just looking for one.
The road ahead is definitely rockier than the Class of 2011 imagined it would be. But while this may be the most debt-burdened graduating class in history, it's also the most tech-savvy, the most connected, and the most engaged.
This year's graduates need to embrace this, and build on it, looking for innovative ways to do well for themselves while doing good for others. And, while they're at it, they should use these attributes to help hold our leaders accountable, and keep them from turning away from the mess they've made -- with so many missed opportunities and perverted priorities.
The death of cash - Fortune Tech
The death of cash - Fortune Tech ;.. FORTUNE -- Café Grumpy is the kind of hipster hangout that wouldn't deign to trumpet itself. Tucked away on a quiet street in New York's Chelsea neighborhood, it's easy to miss. There's no sign out front, just a frowning face stenciled on a large shop window. And yet when I walked in for the first time, I immediately felt like one of the regulars. "Charge it to Miguel," I told the barista after ordering a cappuccino, and charge it he did -- to my phone. Not that I ever pulled my iPhone from my pocket. Seconds after the barista tapped my order on Grumpy's minimalist register -- an iPad mounted on a stylish countertop stand -- my phone vibrated in my coat pocket, signaling that our transaction was complete. I couldn't wait to check that everything had worked as promised. (It had.) For the first time ever I was tickled by the act of paying for something.
The 7 Ugly Truths About Facebook | The Exchange - Yahoo! Finance
The 7 Ugly Truths About Facebook | The Exchange - Yahoo! Finance ; DROP of almost 50 %
4. Its stock price won't stop falling
Facebook's IPO was priced at $38 a share on May 17 and has pretty much sunk like a stone ever since, recently slipping under $20 a share for the first time, a 45 percent drop. What happened? Everyone has a theory — maybe the IPO was mishandled, maybe there was too much hype, maybe Facebook was just overvalued from the start — but the fact remains that the social network has lost about $43 billion in market cap in the past two months (half of its original valuation) and is already one of the worst performing social media IPOs to date.
Unfortunately for Facebook, the worst may be yet to come. Starting next month, nearly 1.7 billion more shares could start hitting the market as employees become freed up to start selling their holdings, which could more than quadruple the number of Facebook shares now trading.
5. Executives are leaving
As happens just about any time a startup goes public -- early employees stick around through the IPO, cash out and then move on to new things. At Facebook, however, several high-profile recent defections have raised questions about the company's leadership and its prospects going forward.
4. Its stock price won't stop falling
Facebook's IPO was priced at $38 a share on May 17 and has pretty much sunk like a stone ever since, recently slipping under $20 a share for the first time, a 45 percent drop. What happened? Everyone has a theory — maybe the IPO was mishandled, maybe there was too much hype, maybe Facebook was just overvalued from the start — but the fact remains that the social network has lost about $43 billion in market cap in the past two months (half of its original valuation) and is already one of the worst performing social media IPOs to date.
Unfortunately for Facebook, the worst may be yet to come. Starting next month, nearly 1.7 billion more shares could start hitting the market as employees become freed up to start selling their holdings, which could more than quadruple the number of Facebook shares now trading.
5. Executives are leaving
As happens just about any time a startup goes public -- early employees stick around through the IPO, cash out and then move on to new things. At Facebook, however, several high-profile recent defections have raised questions about the company's leadership and its prospects going forward.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Flixmaster wants to remake online video - Fortune Tech
Flixmaster wants to remake online video - Fortune Tech ;.. FLIXMASTER ...pause or stop. Now a small company called Flixmaster is trying to make the online viewing experience more interactive. How? By providing easy-to-use tools that let publishers and consumers embed more hands-on features into videos.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post
Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post ;.. HALF ONLY .. So now everyone is wondering -- what happens to the U.S. economy in the second half of the year. Does it pick up from the meager 1.5% GDP growth in the second quarter or does it slide down further in a pattern that could suggest we are slipping into recession?
A diverse group of Wall Street advisors and other economists remain bullish that the economy is going to pick up because of strong auto sales, a strengthening of the housing sector, a modest fall in gasoline prices, and the possibility that the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will initiate new quantitative easing to boost both the European and the U.S. economy.
I don't think this optimism is justified when stacked against evidence in the GDP data that the economy is slowing. While you still see auto sales and housing picking up, overall consumer spending came in at a weak 1.5 percentage points in the second quarter. Exports are still positive, but clearly slowing because of weakness in Europe and the falling euro. Business capital spending is still growing, but the rate of increase is decelerating. Similarly, a lot of the second quarter growth was due to inventory rebuilding which is not likely to continue into the third quarter. Wells Fargo projects 1.2% GDP in the third quarter, which amounts to a "stall speed" that could go negative in response to any policy shock or political blunder.
The stall speed scenario is obvious in the slowdown in earnings forecast for the third quarter. Strong corporate earnings have been one of the bright spots in the struggling U.S. recovery, supporting some modest hiring and substantial capital expenditures, particularly for high-tech products designed to increase productivity. Now, however, the slowdown in revenues due to the slow growth abroad and the squeeze on profit margins from a variety of sources have many firms cutting their earnings projections for the third quarter, with a majority of them suggesting S&P earnings will slip into the red.
My discussion with a wide range of corporate CEOs also supports the stall speed scenario. The majority of them have seen a deceleration in their orders in June and July partly because of the euro crisis, but also because growth in China and immerging markets has been slowing as well. Auto sales have been a standout exception to this trend, but even that critical sector is beginning to show some stall speed fatigue.
Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post
Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post ;.. Romney's "Five Point Plan to Grow the Economy" that he touts on his website, is primitive economics almost beyond belief. It returns us to 19th-century government of the few, by the few, with few regulations or insurance against the kinds of events that brought on the Great Depression and Great Recession, for starters.
Conservatives in general and Mitt Romney don't seem to understand the most basic concept of modern economics -- insuring against major disruptions -- that is indispensable to run a modern economy. Insurance isn't only about insuring the many to protect the most vulnerable -- whether against physical disasters such as the Midwest drought, or financial disasters such as the Great Depression, or catastrophic illness. It is really about all of our citizens being for one, and one for all. It is why we tax ourselves to pay for a government, because government is really the protector of last resort against the most basic risks in a world grown increasingly complex and uncertain.
Modern economies can't do without it, yet Romney says he opposes most modern forms of protection in his five-point plan by continuing to reduce taxes that would starve government of revenues, as well as cap spending on regulation enforcement. He would also repeal the Affordable Care Act that insures 30 million more Americans. Instead he proposes more of GW Bush's 'Ownership Society' which seeks to return us to the era of laissez faire -- free, unregulated markets that existed 100 years ago. And we know what institutions which evaded or ignored modern financial regulation did to financial markets.
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